Catalyst For Decline - Market Analysis for Sep 16th, 2026
By
Avi Gilburt
As it stands right now, it would seem that we do not have any clear impulsive moves off a low in the metals charts. Therefore, this means we only likely have seen a corrective rally, suggesting one more drop. And, with the Fed up today, it could easily be a catalyst for that drop.
Now, remember, I cannot count a clear impulsive rally which is why I think there is another drop coming. This is not set in stone, but just seems more likely to me right now based upon what I have seen thus far. Clearly, we can morph into a leading diagonal or something, but as of now, it seems more likely that we drop one more time.
This now begs the question as to whether the next drop is simply a 5th wave in a (c) wave of the current corrective decline, or if we are going to see something much greater, like the start of a 3rd wave down, which is clearly possible in silver and GDX?
And, this is not a question I can answer with certainty. However, what I can do is provide parameters and guideposts for us to make the determination for an answer.
In gold, the most ideal structure would call for a 5th wave lower low to complete this (c) wave of b/ii. However, if the support box between 4133-4233 breaks (the support box on the 60-minute gold chart), then it clearly opens the door to the 5th wave lower low.
In silver, that point is the 60.80 region. If that breaks, then it opens the door to the decline being a 3rd wave down in the c-wave of the 5th wave, which would target at least the 53.50 region, but has potential to extend down to the mid 40’s.
In GDX, that point is the 90 region. As long as that holds, then we have a relatively nice completing (a)(b)(c) structure for the 2nd wave, and we will want to see a clear 5-wave rally to make it likely the next rally north of 100 has begun. However, if that region sees a sustained break, then it opens the door to this also being a 3rd wave decline in the yellow (c) wave decline, which would ultimately be pointing us back down to the 60-70 region for the (c) wave completion, and the next major buying opportunity.
One way or another, I think it is reasonable and likely we will begin a bigger rally which takes us into the end of the year and potentially into next year. But, the remaining question which is still nagging us is whether the markets can see a lower low before that rally begins. And, we are pretty close to the market answering that question.
Lastly, the reason I wrote this update so early is because with today being a Fed day I wanted you to be able to prepare if price should begin to act wildly.
