With the market having the opportunity to prove its ready to break out again, and failing to do so, it suggests to me that we can finally see more of a reasonable pullback. Let me show you what I mean.
The GDX has been my biggest issue. As you can see, I am viewing the current action as striking a 3-wave b-wave top today, and the decline being wave i of the c-wave of 2. Of course, this could still be a shallow wave 2, which I am viewing as my alternative, but I think silver suggests this decline can take us further down into our support. Should GDX begin an impulsive rally over today’s high, then I will consider that wave 2 is done.
As far as silver, we also have seen a lot of overlapping action. So, I have slightly adjusted my count to have wave 1 topping as we moved into 2023, which made today’s high a b-wave just like GDX. Moreover, I would assume that a 1-2 downside structure in the c-wave, similar to what I have presented in GDX will likely take us down to our support region in silver. So, as long as we remain below today’s high, and do not see any impulsive movements over it, that is now my expectation.
The alternative in silver is that a higher high would complete a potential leading diagonal for wave 1 of iii in silver. But, for now, that is an alternative.
GC has the similar set up. But, take note that a 1-2 downside structure in the c-wave for GC would be pointing us to the bottom of our support region. So, we may have a nice buying opportunity in the coming days.
The main point for which I am sending this update out is that we now have a set up for a deeper and more reasonable 2nd wave pullback across the complex. As long as we hold below today’s high, that is now my expectation. Yet, should we break back out over today’s high, then I have to view GC and GDX as completing an a-b-c structure for their respective 2nd waves, and silver’s higher high would complete a leading diagonal for wave 1 of iii.