The 100.0 extension down off the initial down-move in the iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures ETN (VXX) comes in at 32.34. The 123.6 extension comes in at the 31.74 zone, which also has confluence with the 76.4 extension of the initial wave (a) up off the 25.83 low.
So, the VXX would really need to see a move through those levels to suggest that we may have struck a top in wave 4. Holding those levels and breaking back over the 34.87 high would be the initial signal that we are heading higher in a larger degree wave (v) up off of the lows.
This is quite a bullish signal on the larger degree pattern and would be the initial signal that we may have struck a bottom in the wave ((b)) as shown on the 240-min chart.
In the Dow, we still only have three waves down off of the highs, but are closing in on trend-line support here. So if this is going to bottom in a wave 4 around current levels, it would really be the ideal spot to do so.
If we get another micro wave iv and v down then it would be the initial signal that this has already struck a larger degree top and will be heading much lower in the weeks and months ahead.