Bull Train Stabilized After Brake Check

The final week of September was quite interesting because the overcrowded bull train utilized a common traffic management strategy in order kick off some passengers first with a classic shakefest/brake check. If you recall, the bull train was getting ready to complete the continuation pattern towards the 2960-2970 measured move target from the prior week as long as our must-hold support held at 2902 on the Emini S&P 500.

In simplest terms, the monthly closing week was just a good old inside week in order for the price action to trap in more participants from both sides before the eventual acceleration.

What’s next?

Friday closed at 2921.75 around the highs of the day, and it was a doji bar that stabilized with a low of 2908. If you recall, the low of the week was 2907.5 forming the double bottom as the bulls defended against the must-hold 2902 level for immediate trending purposes. In simplest terms, it’s just an ongoing daily 20EMA bull train based on momentum just like the past few months repeating the same old BTFD strategy and generating great alpha following the trend.

Heading into the first week of Oct, treat last week as an inside week consolidation and anytime we should be ready to make the all-time high breakout above 2947 and then continue towards the 2960-2970 measured move target from a couple weeks ago. 

At this point, the must-hold immediate trending support is relocated at 2915 given the Sunday night acceleration and momentum. That means that if price gets below 2915, then the immediate bull train becomes at risk of a derailment like the final two days of September where we went to neutral mode given what transpired.

Our 4-hour projection chart is drawn based on our expectations and as always the white line is our primary and red our alt in terms of probabilities unless otherwise stated.  Same end result means high probability, but just a different acceleration route.

When above 2915 or most ideally above 2922 at all times then we’re expecting a 2960-2970 measured move target zone to be hit within six sessions after the publication of this report. If below 2915, then inside week shakefest continues and immediate bull train in jeopardy if below 2902 after.

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Ricky Wen is an analyst at ElliottWaveTrader.net, where he writes a nightly market column and hosts the ES Trade Alerts premium subscription service.