Break Out Set Up

While I cannot say that this set up is anywhere near as clear in GDX or GLD, I think its time to go on high alert for a potential break out in silver.

Thus far, we completed what looks like a VERY full 5-wave decline to complete a 5th wave of a c-wave in silver to complete a very large wave [2] pullback.  Since that time, we saw what MAY be a leading diagonal for a possible wave i of wave [i] in the bullish change of direction.  

Now, it is quite common to see a deep retracement for a wave ii after a leading diagonal, and that is what we may have completed today.  And, the reason I am a bit more encouraged is because we had a better counting 5-wave rally off today's low.

Therefore, this leaves us developing a potential i-ii, 1-2 off the recent lows.  We still need a corrective micro wave 2 pullback, and if we then break out over the high of wave i, we may be catapulting in wave iii of wave [i]. 

But, for more conservative investors, I am again going to warn you that you may want to wait until waves [i][ii] of the larger degree sets up and breaks out before you get aggressive on the long side.  Yet, for now, the market is doing everything it needs to be doing to begin proving that a larger degree bottom has potentially been struck in silver.

Avi Gilburt is founder of