Bounce In Progress - Market Analysis for Sep 2nd, 2026

Thus far, the metals charts are playing out reasonably well. And, with the manner in which we have rallied thus far, it is looking much more like a corrective rally, so the probabilities of the first path I outlined in my last update has dropped (that this correction has completed). Rather, it seems that this is a corrective bounce which will likely lead to another drop.

What has not been determined yet is if that next drop will be pointing us to lower lows or not. And, as I noted in my live video this morning for our full-members, the fact that we can count the GDX decline as a 5-wave structure has certainly opened the door to a lower low in GDX as a c-wave in yellow, which would also suggest that both gold and silver can see lower lows in a 5^th wave in their respective ending diagonals.

Unfortunately, this means we will have to watch how the next drop takes shape before we make any determinations as to whether we are buying a 2^nd or b-wave pullback, or if we are going to get the opportunity to buy lower lows and start this process all over.

In the micro structure, I am assuming this rally is only the a-wave of the (b) wave rally we want to see. But, please do take note that, while it is relatively shallow, this can be all of the (b) wave (or potential wave 2 in GDX) that we see. But, for now, my preference would be that this is an ongoing (b) wave (o2 wave 2 in GDX) bounce.