Bitcoin Relief Rally Should Set Up Short-Term Short Trade


We're seeing the relief rally that I've been expecting, but I really can't suggest whether it will follow through to levels I'd want. As stated we've seen so many rally attempts out of downside targets that we should have seen more fruit, but they died on the vine, so to speak. 

For Bitcoin (BTCUSD) we still have the two counts.  Note, I wrote a typo last night and $6800 is needed to make red count questionable, and $7145 invalid. So, right now I have the two counts. If we are seeing a strong reprieve from downside, we have likely only seen the A wave and BTC, and if Ether sees the top of the channel defining this diagonal it will have only completed a of A (and too small for my current view). I'd like to see BTC at least tap $6800-6900.

The ETHBTC chart is already sagging, and I'd like to see a healthier (4) out of it with a hit of .063 at least. But it is looking weak. Let's see if it can really climb before that final drop. 

Long-term traders should get their shopping list together, but consider only scaling or doing nothing. Short-term traders are going to get a good setup for short here IMO. I have a large sell stop underneath yesterdays lows in case we drop out while I'm sleeping. I consider this market aggressive enough to leave that there, but I'd like to reduce that order by how much I can add higher.

Until $8200 BTC is breached impulsively, I will look down. And $7945 provides an early warning of breakout. 

BTCQ8 - Primary Analysis - Aug-09 1509 PM (2 hour)
BTCQ8 - Primary Analysis - Aug-09 1509 PM (2 hour)
ETHBTC - Primary Analysis - Aug-09 1524 PM (6 hour)
ETHBTC - Primary Analysis - Aug-09 1524 PM (6 hour)
ETHUSD - Bearish - Aug-09 1511 PM (1 hour)
ETHUSD - Bearish - Aug-09 1511 PM (1 hour)
BTCUSD - More Complex - Aug-09 1511 PM (45 min)
BTCUSD - More Complex - Aug-09 1511 PM (45 min)
Ryan Wilday hosts the Crypto Waves service on ElliottWaveTrader.net.


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