Bayesian Timing Signal Long on SPY

In the U.S. Indices our Bayesian timing system (BTS) signal is long the SPY, QQQ and IWM.  Looking at a daily, 1-month chart on the SPY, the "vibration window" expected by the BTS from over a week ago is clearly visible.  Notice how the daily candles for Jun 11-12 are “hovering” above the daily candles before that. 


Where does that leave us?  Today is day 3 of the window and we are in an obvious relative high scenario.  Historically, windows lead to a minimum “stall” in price about 66% of the time and a violation in 34% of the time.  Our BTS signal is long at the moment.   Important resistance still resides in the 279.50-280.50 region.  Above 280.50 and 282-284 should be seen in quick order.  On the downside, there is a cluster in the 276s and then not until the 273s – and if the 273s don’t hold, then this general path higher that Bayes has been tracking correctly for weeks will need to be re-aggregated to find the next highest path. 

Looking at oil, the USO is still firing at the 13.40s, but thus far has been unable to overcome them.  Targets continue to target the 12.25-12.50 range and down to 11.25-11.50 if that area doesn’t hold.  On a micro level, 12.80 support is in the way of lower prices, but should ultimately be taken out.  

In metals, the BTS signal is long GDX, GLD, and SLV.  A vibration window is forming for June 13 plus or minus a few days (not yet confirmed and many times need to be confirmed real time – if it does, then I will post in the room).  In fact, all the chips are in order for a large spike higher with odds favored 2 to 3 the spike is higher. 

Further, depending upon price action into this window, pre-posterior work shows the entire vibration window could shift to the end of June (giving even higher targets).  This multi-week consolidation still favors a break higher into this week with an initial sign of a “bottom” in place getting above 123.50.  IF this is the bottom the BTS thinks it is, then the price cluster at GLD 133-135 is the multi-week target.

Let’s not get ahead of ourselves and keep the following in mind: Important levels in GDX is 22.25, SLV is 15.30, and GLD is 122. Lower supports also still apply at GDX 21.50, GLD 120.50, and SLV 14.90.  

In natural gas, the BTS signal is long UNG. UNG continues to base above the previous base at 22-23.  Now it is stuck between 23-24, pointing to an eventual break above 24 that will target 25 and possibly 26.

Other ETFs of note:

VNQ:  Signal Neutral.  Got within a stones throw of 81 and the BTS locked down nearly 3% profits. 

DBA: Signal Long.  The relative low bounces DBA yet again – on a micro level, getting above 18.90 is important to higher prices.  BPs still favor another run back to 19 with that wall at 19.35-19.50 to get thru and then off to 22 can’t be ruled out.

XBI: Signal Long.  91, then 94, then 96, then 98, back to 96 support, still with 100 in its sights. Bayes continues to stay long and is sitting on nice profits.  Consolidating continues.

XLF: Signal Long.  Notice how the signal trigger price was a micro level of support area.  Target is still 29 once 28.20 is conquered.

Luke Miller, who has developed a Bayesian timing system for trading the stock market, hosts two Bayesian timing premium services at ElliottWaveTrader.