Bayesian Signals Flip To Long in SPY
By
Luke Miller
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is progressing as expected: Keeping an open mind to the dynamic, non-linear nature of markets is one of the specialties of the Bayesian Timing System (BTS), and near the low of the day on January 14, the signals flipped to long.
As of now the target is SPY 332-335, but above 335 would see the mid-340s. Below there is support at SPY 324-326.
Here are the paths: (1) [Probability=43%] SPY chops around between 325-330 before succumbing to a tradable top of at least a $10 pullback, (2) [P=57%] SPY pushes more directly in the mid-330s before pausing.
In metals, near the high of the day yesterday in the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) and SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), the BTS went neutral across all metals positions. Given the corrective feel of the recent bounce, the BTS preferred to get to the sidelines with modest profits versus hanging around.
A vibration window mid-next week has appeared which should shed light on things. Until then, things remain iffy for both longs and shorts. Please note that a Bayesian vibration window is a moment in time that serves as resistance or support in price – usually manifesting as a relative high or low in price
In oil, the US Oil Fund (USO) continues its attempt to base in the 12.25ish support region; however, resistance in the 12.75-13 will most likely contain any bounce higher.
As mentioned on January 10 in a thread, we are most likely looking to exit our energy trades on any meaningful bounce and regrouping -- and with USO only 7% of the optimal portfolio, it is the reason we diversify as discussed in the guide.
