Bayesian Probabilities Point to a Micro Turn Lower
By
Luke Miller
Here are three micro paths our Bayesian Timing System is tracking:
(1) With a Bayesian Probability (BP) of 31%, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) bounces unpredictably between 260-ish and 270-ish for several weeks before making a decision higher or lower,
(2) With a BP of 46%, SPY begins a more immediate breakdown of the Jan 23 low and falls to 255 and then to the mid-240s, and
(3) With a BP of 23%, SPY begins a run from these levels to as high as 280-285.
A vibration window has formed for Jan 30-Feb 1. A vibration window is a moment in time that serves as resistance or support in price, usually manifesting as a relative high or low in price. As all the vibration windows in January have held their 2/3rds chance (i.e. no vibration window violations), will this finally be the vibration window that helps the bears?
In metals, the BTS recently took profits when our upside targets were hit. There is a vibration window forming for mid-February -- which at the moment is presenting as an important timing moment -- as a relative low that holds would most likely send metals into another multi-week to multi-month bull run.
Conversely, the inability to hold a vibration window low in mid-February could lead to new multi-month lows. We're on the sidelines awaiting a set up.
If SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) 124-ish doesn’t slow this bull, then next up would be 127s. Regardless, a strong turn lower is most likely, but the more interesting decision point should be in mid-Feb when either the bull decides to live on or die.
