Approaching Next Resistance - Market Analysis for Nov 4th, 2026
By
Avi Gilburt
Yes, I am posting this update a bit earlier than normal, but I think we all have to be aware of where we currently reside in the metals complex.
Can the lows be in place? Absolutely, as we have enough waves in place now to view the respecting c-waves as completed.
Yet, as we have discussed many times, we will need to break out through resistance to make it more likely for this to be the case in the metals, and we really want to see a clear 5-wave rally in GDX as well. Remember that we are not expecting a 5-wave rally off the lows in metals, as my primary analysis expects this rally to be a large (b) wave, which usually begin with 3-wave structures. So, to this point, they will be indistinguishable from a 4th wave rally, which will lead to a lower low.
As I write this update, both silver and gold are approaching their respective downtrend lines, which has contained this decline for some time now. While it is not uncommon to see the metals spike these channels only to reverse thereafter, I want you to at least recognize that we are at a very important juncture.
I think GDX outlines this juncture clearer than the other charts. We are now approaching the resistance for the yellow wave 4 on our 8-minute chart. And if we only complete 3 waves into this resistance, this would be a strong warning that a lower low is in the cards, with a challenge of the 70 region becoming likely.
However, if we can complete 5-waves as outlined on the 8-minute GDX chart, that would go a long way into supporting the wave (2) wave count as having completed.
There is not a lot for me to add to this analysis at this time and I want to keep this simple. None of this should come as a surprise to any of you that have been carefully reading my analysis. This is going to be a key point in the micro count, and will likely help us determine whether the low is in place or not in the coming days. And for those interested, this could be another good time to add hedges if you so choose.
I will be doing updates in the main room focusing more so on the GDX as it progresses in the coming days.
