Approaching Local Top - Market Analysis for Jun 4th, 2020

We are closing in on the previous all-time high at the 9753 level on the Nasdaq 100 (NDX).  As I noted yesterday, if we do indeed break the ATH, then the 9832 level is the 300 ext, which is really the final fib that I would want to see hold if we are indeed in an impulse up off of the 5/14 low.

If this moves too much past that level I would likely have to revise the micro count and would then be focusing on the larger degree fib which comes in at the 10,038 level overhead. In either case, however, I still think is getting close to at least a local top even if this does grind a bit higher first. We will still need to get back under the 9325 level on the NQ level followed by a move back under the 9151 on the NQ level to signal that we have indeed struck a local top.

Until we break those levels then we still do not have any confirmation of this just yet, however, If we do indeed break those levels I then look towards the larger support as shown on the NDX chart at the 8820-8385 zone to give us a signal that we may have finally struck a top in ((1)) off of the March lows. If we can hold that level and make another high, then it would suggest that this current topping area is still only a wave (3) of that move up off of the lows, in which case we still need another higher high in a larger wave (5) shown in green prior to putting in a larger degree top.

We still have some work to do before we can confirm either of these topping scenarios, but as I have been noting with the counts getting as full so I am still certainly quite cautious to the long side here but still waiting for some kind of confirmation of a top before giving us any further signal that this may already be heading lower. 

NQ  30m
NQ 30m
$NDX.X (1 hour)
$NDX.X (1 hour)
Michael Golembesky is a senior analyst at ElliottWaveTrader covering US Indices, the US Dollar, and the VIX. He contributes frequently to Avi's Market Alerts service at EWT while also hosting his own VIX Trading service.