Almost There? - Market Analysis for Oct 7th, 2026

With the expected decline today, the metals market is clearly closer to the completion of its correction. But, I just do not have sufficient evidence to suggest that it is done.

While silver has now dropped to the top of the next target/support box on the 5-minute chart, the rally off that low really counts best as a 3-wave structure. And, since a c-wave or a wave iii would be a 5-wave event, we have no indication that the floor to this correction has been found and that a rally has begun.

Gold has taken a step closer now to lower lows. What will be interesting is if gold gets a marginally lower low and silver does not. In my opinion I believe that would make the bigger (b) wave rally an even higher probability as gold would then invalidate the yellow count with a break down to lower lows. But even due to the depth of this pullback in gold, I think it adds to the probability for our primary count of a larger (b) wave.

GDX is approaching its .618 retracement of the prior rally. With silver and gold as close as they are to lower lows, I think this relative strength does make it more likely that this is a wave (2) in GDX and it will more likely hold even if silver and gold do make lower lows.

Another reason I think the wave (2) is more probable at this time is because what should have been the heart of a wave 3 down in the yellow count in GDX (wave iii of 3) did not really act as the heart of a 3^rd wave normally does. I think it does lend more support to this being a c-wave in wave (2).

There is a point I think I need to stress, which I also made in the live video this morning to the membership. I think some of you have lost focus that the PRIMARY wave count in gold and silver is that they are involved in a much larger corrective (b) wave rally, as presented in green on the 60-minute gold and 144-minute silver chart. While many of the miners support the potential for much higher highs to be seen in GDX, I cannot say that gold and silver retain the same potential – at least based upon the information we have thus far.

Of course, if this yellow count can hold then we can see how the start of the rally progresses in order to re-assess the potential for the yellow count and much higher highs in silver and gold. But, for now, I want to reiterate that the primary count is for a (b) wave rally which may even approach the prior all-time high. But, again, this is why I see the better opportunity in the various individual mining stocks which have strong potential for much higher highs.

But, in the overall perspective, we are still waiting for a CLEAR 5-wave rally to suggest that a low has indeed been struck. I am not sure we have all the squiggles in place yet for this to happen.  And, if you are asking yourself whether I deployed more cash into mining stocks today, the answer is a resounding "YES."