4th Wave Taking Shape

We left off in the weekend update with an expectation of a rally for the c-wave of the respective 4th waves in the various metals charts. And, thus far, the rally is progressing.

That being said, I cannot say that the structure of this rally is a typical 5-wave structure we normally see in a c-wave.  While it may be taking shape as a diagonal, as clearly seen in silver, it could portend that this 4th wave may take longer an provide more machinations before we see lower lows.  At the time of my writing this update, I cannot provide guidance as to which is more likely.  But, I can say that the rally is not clearly taking shape as a standard c-wave.

Moreover, there has been a minor development in the GDX which could suggest a leading diagonal has completed for wave 1 off the recent lows.  Again, for those that follow my work, you know that I need leading diagonal’s to prove themselves.  So, while I am highlighting the potential count as an alternative at the moment, it has a lot to prove to me to suggest the bottom has been struck in GDX.

As far as NEM is concerned, I am not seeing anything that suggests the bottom has been struck, and I expect at least one more lower before it completes its wave ii.

And, again, ABX is still suggesting it has bottomed, as its downside structure was quite full when we were expecting it to bottom out.  Currently, while I had an alternative count for this being a 4th wave rally, I must note that we really have come up higher than a 4th wave would normally suggest.  Therefore, I have modified that alternative to view this rally as completing wave i off the lows within a wave (i) which can then take us much higher to complete.  So, I am still going to give this chart room to run higher towards the 13+ region to complete a larger wave (i) off the lows, as I have outlined in the past.

In the end, other than the ABX, I have nothing that would strongly suggest that the bottom has yet been struck in the complex.  While there are glimpses of patterns which may evidence a structure which has already bottomed, I have nothing upon which I can hang a high probability hat.  But, I will reiterate that we should still be within a long term bottoming pattern, even though much of what I am seeing still suggests a lower low can be struck within the next several months.  It would take a break out through the respective resistance regions to suggest otherwise.

GDX-8min
GDX-8min
GDXdaily
GDXdaily
GLD 8min
GLD 8min
GLDdaily
GLDdaily
silver144min
silver144min
ABX60-minute
ABX60-minute
ABXdaily
ABXdaily
NEM
NEM
Avi Gilburt is founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net.