Market Analysis for Oct 21st, 2022

Market about to open around yesterday’s close and nearby the 3680 key level. Indecision between buyers and sellers right now waiting for a breakout. Be prepared for more rangebound traps. No changes from gameplan:

Key ideas going into the next session(s):

  • After Tuesday’s breakout above daily 20EMA and closing above 3730, buyers have been getting no traction or follow through. Two digestion days in a row waiting for climax/next week’s earnings. Buyers failing.
  • This is also the second session closing back below daily 20EMA, a big red flag
  • Short-term momentum is back in sellers’ favour as it trends below 3680 


  • Tomorrow is monthly OPEX so our primary expectation/concern is to see if sellers are able to liquidate trapped buyers from past few days with a massive trend day down into 3600 or below
  • We’ll be using 3730 and 3680 key levels tomorrow to judge momentum and look for opportunities to execute, let’s see where we open for RTH first
  • If price cannot decisively break below 3680 after RTH open and stay below it with hourly closing prints, then be aware of another range day to backtest 3730
  • Only below 3680 or above 3730 could open intraday trend day scenarios


  • Buyers need another daily close above 3730 to open up higher targets into 3820/3900/3950+ (Q4 2022 lows developing if market takes this scenario)
  • We also need to be aware of the incoming  megacap ER reports next week Oct 25-27
Ricky Wen is an analyst at, where he writes a nightly market column and hosts the ES Trade Alerts premium subscription service.