Market Analysis for Jun 28th, 2021

E-mini S&P 500 Futures: Keep It Simple Stupid – Déjà vu, Month End Highs

Copying and pasting a section from our ES trade alert room’s premarket gameplan report. FYI, the ES trade room provides real-time entries and exits with pre-determined stoploss and target levels alongside with real-time lessons on strategy/risk management/psychology/momentum. We specialize in quick intraday alpha setups and short-term swings with duration of 2-5 days and occasional 10-15 sessions holding period (some key levels + strategies have been redacted for fairness to subscribers)

  • Friday closed at 4274.5 around the highs of the session; it couldn’t reach the optimal 4280-4300 zone in time
  • Expect 4280-4300 to provide immediate resistance to reset some short-term overboughtness so look for applicable buyable dips here to play for the bigger picture
  • This week is mostly about holding strong for the month end closing print at/near highs because it’s been an uptrend month once again(surprise surprise, bull market making higher lows+higher highs). Then, setting up for the strong July seasonality
  • All dips above 4200 are buyable into 4300 and then 4400. 
  • Immediate supports are located at 4250/4238, utilize level by level approach
  • Know your timeframes and risk exposure here
  • Note: heading into July, which is 3rd the strongest months based on returns via past 20 year S&P 500 data. We’re expecting more of the same grind up structure; market is a launch pad towards 4300 and 4400

Additional context from past months remain mostly unchanged (copied and pasted):

  • The shit hits the fan (SHTF) level has moved up to 3965 from 3650, a daily closing print below 3965 is needed in order to confirm a temp top setup/reversal for the daily+weekly timeframe. (the current April 2021 lows which was the breakout acceleration point of the past few weeks) 
  • A break below 3965 would be a strong indication of weakness given the multi-week trend of being above the daily 20EMA train tracks. For reference, the first week of April, the price action has accelerated on top of the daily 8EMA to indicate that the bulls are in full control and continuously making higher lows and higher highs every couple sessions bottomed 
  • Different timeframes in this report so it may be overwhelming, make sure you know which timeframes you are participating and adjust gameplan + execution accordingly

 

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Ricky Wen is an analyst at ElliottWaveTrader.net, where he writes a nightly market column and hosts the ES Trade Alerts premium subscription service.