Market Analysis for Jun 14th, 2021


E-mini S&P 500 Futures: Keep It Simple Stupid – ATHs Fulfilled, On-trend vs. Weak Seasonality

Copying and pasting a section from our ES trade alert room’s premarket gameplan report. FYI, the ES trade room provides real-time entries and exits with pre-determined stoploss and target levels alongside with real-time lessons on strategy/risk management/psychology/momentum. We specialize in quick intraday alpha setups and short-term swings with duration of 2-5 days and occasional 10-15 sessions holding period (some key levels + strategies have been redacted for fairness to subscribers)

  • Last week fulfiled our continuation targets at ES 4238 and 4250 with the slow grind up
  • Last week also fulfilled our bonus RTY targets at 2320 and 2350, NQ target at 14k
  • We’re expecting more of the same slow methodical grind this week as the price action and volatility dried up until price action proves otherwise
  • We still need to be mindful of mid June-late June weak seasonality as sentiment could change in an instance by price action confirmation/reversal
  • Going into this week’s paramters: when above ES 4205, grind favours 4280/4300. When below 4200, downside opens up 4165/4150/4140. 
  • For now, last week’s 4hr white line projection remains valid as grind up continues toward 4300~
  • Slow grind until Weds FOMC timing catalyst so look for applicable higher low opportunities
  • (All levels being discussed are now based on the September contract on US equity indices)

Additional context from past months remain mostly unchanged (copied and pasted):

  • The shit hits the fan (SHTF) level has moved up to 3965 from 3650, a daily closing print below 3965 is needed in order to confirm a temp top setup/reversal for the daily+weekly timeframe. (the current April 2021 lows which was the breakout acceleration point of the past few weeks) 
  • A break below 3965 would be a strong indication of weakness given the multi-week trend of being above the daily 20EMA train tracks. For reference, the first week of April, the price action has accelerated on top of the daily 8EMA to indicate that the bulls are in full control and continuously making higher lows and higher highs every couple sessions bottomed 
  • Different timeframes in this report so it may be overwhelming, make sure you know which timeframes you are participating and adjust gameplan + execution accordingly

 

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Ricky Wen is an analyst at ElliottWaveTrader.net, where he writes a nightly market column and hosts the ES Trade Alerts premium subscription service.