Market Analysis for Apr 26th, 2021

E-mini S&P 500 Futures: Keep It Simple Stupid – Déjà vu, Bull Train Gearing Into Month End Highs

Copying and pasting a section from our ES trade alert room’s premarket gameplan report. FYI, the ES trade room provides real-time entries and exits with pre-determined stoploss and target levels alongside with real-time lessons on strategy/risk management/psychology/momentum. We specialize in quick intraday alpha setups and short-term swings with duration of 2-5 days holding period. (some key levels + strategies have been redacted for fairness to subscribers)

  • Heading into the last week of April, the price action is once again being favoured bullish as it is gearing  towards an all time highs close in order to cement momentum for the monthly closing 
  • Last week fulfilled the 4185 target and the bull train is doing a high level consolidation. We’re still expecting our higher end 4200 target to be hit as we head into the monthly closing print
  • We need 4200 target to be fulfilled in order to confirm the next high probability on-trend targets such as 4215-4220, 4238…etc
  • At this point, short-term must hold levels are 4150 and 4127 derived from last Friday, BTFD favoured for this entire week when price action trending above these levels. Adapt accordingly
  • The current structure and context of this bull train is that the daily price action has been trending above the daily 20EMA since the first week of March
  • Then, this trend accelerated on April 1st when the price action broke above the multi-week resistance of 3950s-3970s the propelled the bull train to ride on top of the daily 8EMA for almost an entire month now

Please note it’s a very important week for mega + large cap earnings this week with TSLA on Monday, GOOGL+MSFT+AMD+V on Tuesday, AAPL+FB+SHOP on Weds, AMZN +MCD on Thurs, ABBV+XOM on Fri…alongside with many smaller names

Additional context from past months remain mostly unchanged (copied and pasted):

  • The shit hits the fan (SHTF) level has moved up to 3965 from 3650, a daily closing print below 3965 is needed in order to confirm a temp top setup/reversal for the daily+weekly timeframe. (the current April 2021 lows which was the breakout acceleration point of the past few weeks) 
  • A break below 3965 would be a strong indication of weakness given the multi-week trend of being above the daily 20EMA train tracks. For reference, the first week of April, the price ation has accelerated on top of the daily 8EMA to indicate that the bulls are in full control and continuously making higher lows and higher highs every couple sessions bottomed 
  • Different timeframes in this report so it may be overwhelming, make sure you know which timeframes you are participating and adjust gameplan + execution accordingly
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Ricky Wen is an analyst at ElliottWaveTrader.net, where he writes a nightly market column and hosts the ES Trade Alerts premium subscription service.