Market Analysis for Jun 10th, 2020

Greetings from the Crypto Room-

I wanted to give a quick update for GBTC traders as we come to a key region. For background on some things said below, I presume you paid me a visit at my public webinar.  Please do if you haven't. If you did attend you know I am watching for a both an impulse toward $100+ and for a B wave that sends us back to ~$2. You also learned how faithfully cryptos tend to follow Avi's Fibonacci Pinball in relation to the first of third waves. In cryptos they tend not to extend. And, so if we do not see a five wave top by the .618 and even more so the .764, we are not in a third wave, but in a C wave. I actually know no variation in Bitcoin or GBTC. The good news for GBTC is we have 5up coming in, potentially topping right at the .618 at $13. The micro argues for a top closer to $14-15 . But regardless, I have started to take some off and will draw my core down to 25% by $13, leaving the rest on until an algo sell, referring to my new GBTC momentum algo in trial, and which received some training via machine learning. 

What's also important is that Bitcoin's structure is slightly different. It's .618 extension was back at $9060 and its .764 extension is at $11,630. So Bitcoin is farther along in risking a B wave top. I will follow its lead, not GBTC. 

Now, per comments on Avi's Fibonacci Pinball above, if we do not see a top by $16.26, the .764 extension on this chart, the B wave scenario increases in probability, not decreases. This is one of the interesting paradoxes I've found in Elliott Wave applied to cryptos. So, regardless of whether we top immediately at $13, or extend further to $16 this area is a risk region.

The last algo signal fired long at $10.94. So, this puts our trial algo series at -2.97%, +44.80% realized, and as of closed today +12.4% unrealized. So far since trial it has slightly underperformed buy and hold yet has provided a nice return. Based on backtests, it's power is shown in avoiding downdrafts and that's where it runs ahead of HODLing. The micro signal I've experimented has not been bad but is found too choppy in tests and I am investigating a signal that trades with less frequency. 

GBTC - Impulsive 6H - Jun-10 1757 PM (6 hour)
GBTC - Impulsive 6H - Jun-10 1757 PM (6 hour)
Ryan Wilday hosts the Cryptocurrency Trading service on ElliottWaveTrader.net.