Market Analysis for Jun 25th, 2019

Greetings from the Crypto Room

Today is a good day for my occasional update from the crypto room. When we flashback back to February 2018, I was watching a rally that might keep our 2018 bear shallow. But it failed, and I had to mark $4600-$3000 long term support, as it was the region between two very important fibs on the weekly chart. If you are at all ‘bitcoin aware’ you know we bottomed at roughly $3100 last December, so our long term support held. Against the backdrop of very bearish sentiment, the bolder members  in the EWT crypto room and I went long. Now we are up close to 400% in six months. 

Six months later we have five waves complete, though the micro of that fifth wave doesn’t look complete. I  prefer, due to various projections, $13K-$13,425 for a top. Sentiment is now getting overheated. Calls for $60K, 100K abound. Guess what? I agree. In fact, if we see a shallow wave 2, not uncommon, we may well see $100K Bitcoin. And, I know from all my studies that 5th waves in Bitcoin are extended so beyond $100K is possible. I count this bull market the beginning of the 5th of our larger third. So, it very may very well extend. 

However, in the short term, I’m going bet against current sentiment and expect a correction soon. The more this correction shakes out weak hands the better. Let it begin: suggestions Bitcoin is a scam, that Facebook Libra will crypto, and that it has no intrinsic value so going to $0. It’s just about that time, as the best wave 2’s feel like the bear is roaring again. 

But if we hold support, these calls will be put to shame.  

If anyone is ‘crypto curious’ and thinking about getting in, in all humility, I’m going to say this is your last chance for a couple years. While, I cannot say for sure that wave 2 will hold, it should. $4300 for me is the line in the sand. And, I hope we get there. Crypto is too volatile to buy well over support, and I want a full position.  If we do not hold that level, I’ll have to look at my alts that suggest a level of $1600. But for now, even though I’m taking profit, I assume I’ll be adding between $4300 and $7600, the latter being a shallow wave 2. 

If you are interested in crypto, I created a webinar on trading crypto, when we started this service which seems so long ago now. Also, if you don’t want to trade real crypto I do cover GBTC and the other Greyscale trusts, though with the premium risk they carry, I very much am pro real-crypto. 

I’ve included charts for my expectation in BTC and GBTC, PROVIDED SUPPORT holds. We expect the next year or two in the crypto room to be a very fun time :).

GBTC - Primary Analysis - Jun-25 1300 PM (1 day)
GBTC - Primary Analysis - Jun-25 1300 PM (1 day)
BTCUSD - Primary Analysis - Jun-25 1306 PM (1 day)
BTCUSD - Primary Analysis - Jun-25 1306 PM (1 day)
Ryan Wilday hosts the Cryptocurrency Trading service on ElliottWaveTrader.net.