(a) Wave Seemingly Not Done

With the market unable to develop any real rally attempt for a c-wave, it has forced us into the perspective that the (a) wave has not yet completed.  And, that suggests that we have a date with the 6360SPX support zone next.   I now have that as my primary count.

While the market can certainly drop to that region in a more direct fashion, it would not surprise me to see yet another twist in this action.  You see, the initial rally off the recent lows could have been an a-wave in wave 4, with this pullback being a b-wave, followed by a c-wave rally.   While I really like this path, we are going to need to see a CLEAR 5-wave rally develop off a low in this pullback in order to make that a higher probability.  For now, I see the lower-low vs. the bigger wave 4 as a 50/50 proposition.  Unfortunately, this is the nature of 4^th waves.

So, that now means that until we see a clear 5-wave rally begin soon, we have to assume that we get a more direct drop to the 6360SPX region next  Yet, again, remain open to the potential for further whipsaw, which is in line with the nature of 4th waves..  

This also still means that once this diagonal finally completes, we can see a very strong reversal back towards the 6850-6900SPX region for what I am going to expect to be a (b) wave corrective rally.