With today’s weakness, there is very little for me to rely upon for an immediate bullish resolution. In fact, the only structure left for a possible wave i is a leading diagonal, and I do not view those as highly reliable.
Even within the leading diagonal potential, I have to also note that the pullback into what we would call wave [iv] “looks” too big relative to the rest of the structure to be highly probable. Yet, I am still maintaining the count due to the fact that this is a bull market, and surprises come to the upside. But, I want to be clear that I am personally protecting my own positions due to the increased probability for the yellow count in wave .
Even within the yellow count, I don’t see it as highly probable that we simply break down from here. There is no clear structure pointing to this having begun the c-wave down at this time. Of course, the market can do as it wishes, but as long as we remain over 3775SPX, I think a b-wave in the yellow count can also take us back towards the highs (and even make a marginally higher high), before we drop in the c-wave of wave . Since I have no clear indication that this pullback has yet completed, I am unable to come up with an [a]=[c] target within the b-wave just yet. But, if today’s morning low holds, the [a]=[c] projects to a marginally higher high. So, clearly, it will make trading the next week or two quite precarious.
Should we rally back to the highs, I will be trading the yellow count, and likely adding to my protective positions up there. In the event I am wrong, the market will only pullback in a wave ii corrective pullback, and then rally back up over that level, at which time I can stop out of my protective positions.
So, for now, I am not at all confident that we have begun wave 3, especially as the probabilities have now risen that wave  has not yet completed. And, based upon the high for wave  in yellow, our target for  would be the 3500-3675SPX region, as shown on the 60-minute chart. My expectation is that we should hold the upper region of that pullback, but we will not know more until we see how the c-wave down develops.
So, overall, I think the lack of upside follow through in a bullish structure for wave i of 3 has increased the probabilities for us to still be in wave . For those that are likely asking yourselves is this is still just wave 2, I would say that we have become a bit too large and incomplete to view this as a wave 2. While that is still possible, I do not think it to be a higher probability at this time. Overall, I maintain a larger degree bullish perspective, yet recognize the potential for a larger pullback in wave  has increased with today’s action.
In the meantime, as the micro structure continues to develop, I will be posting updates during the day to track it.