Weighing Competing Issues - Market Analysis for Jun 10th, 2026
By
Avi Gilburt
Yesterday, I tried taking you through my thought process when I analyze the current SPX structure. Today, I am taking it to the next step and adding in the new information we have seen since yesterday.
We were trying to distinguish between the yellow larger (a)(b) structure and the more immediate downside 1-2 set up within the (c) wave. In the later afternoon yesterday, the market rallied up to the .618 retracement of what I am viewing as the wave 1 down, but the rally could be counted as a 5-wave structure.
If the rally would have been a clear 3-wave structure, then I would have had no problem maintaining a strong expectation that we are about to see a 3rd wave down in the (c) wave. But, the potential 5-wave rally structure that we may have in place would seem to be an a-wave of wave 2, with the overnight pullback being a b-wave, and the rally into the morning high today being the c-wave of wave 2. And, I have a wave 2 label on todays high. Yet, the rally into today’s high does not count well as a 5-wave c-wave, which does decrease the probability for a wave 2 having completed.
So, between the 5-wave rally yesterday into the .618 retracement and the rally today not counting terribly well as a 5-wave c-wave, this causes me to re-consider the yellow count again, in addition to a more protracted wave 2. And, you can see these counts now presented on the 15-minute ES chart now. And, until we actually break down below 7250ES, the current action has forced me to leave a bigger door open for the bigger (b) wave in yellow.
So, ultimately, as long as we remain over 7250ES, we need to consider the broader wave 2 and the bigger (b) wave in yellow.
However, if the market can break down below the 7250ES region, then it would suggest we are in the heart of a 3rd wave down in the (c) wave. And, that structure projects down below 7000ES, which would take us deeper into the (c) wave support box.
