Upside Follow Through - Market Analysis for Sep 21st, 2016

The market has been quite nice of late to provide us with a relatively straight forward b-wave structure, which has me a bit worried.  But, as long as we do not see a drop below 2150SPX tomorrow, I think we should be going up this week to complete the (c) wave of the green b-wave.

As you can see from the chart, if the market turns down from the 2162/63SPX region, and breaks 2150, it suggests that the (b) wave of the b-wave will turn much more complex, as shown in the alternative yellow count.  But, under most circumstances, I still believe that the b-wave should take us higher, even if we get that detour.

Now, for the bullish alternative, which is still alive and well in the cash market, if the market were able to strike at LEAST the 2187SPX level, and provide 5 waves up into that level from the 2119SPX lows, then that opens the door to the potential what wave ii is over.  The ideal target for such a 5 wave move would be the 2.00 extension at 2194SPX.

But, for now, our primary expectation remains that we are in the process of completing a b-wave rally, which should turn us down later this month and potentially into October to complete a c-wave of this larger degree wave ii.

Avi Gilburt is founder of