Upper Support Holding For Now

Today was a relatively slow day in the market with the SPX having moved slightly lower but still holding well over even the upper support level.  There really is not too much to add to the previous analysis as the market trades over upper support but still under last week's high. 

So while we remain over support we still have the more immediately bullish blue count in play.  However, until we can see a breakout over last week's high we still do not have any signal that we are indeed ready to breakout under that path, thus leaving the yellow count still very much looming as well. 

As I have noted previously, the micro upper support for the blue wave (ii) comes in at the 4754-4709 zone. As long as we remain over this zone we still have the potential (i)-(ii) up off of the 4681 low in place. 

Should we see a break of that level, then it opens the door for the yellow wave (c) of the larger wave b to be taking hold. I will note, however, that the structure of the initial move down off of the highs is not overly supportive of that yellow wave (c) down, which is making that path a bit less likely at the moment and as long as we remain over support. If we do break under the 4709 level, however, it would once again increase in probability, but again for now the initial structure down off of the highs is not overly supportive of that path just yet. 

So while not too much has changed today, we do still need to wait for further confirmation with either a break over last week's high or a break under the key support levels noted above to give us further confirmation of which way this market is headed in the near term. Until that occurs we simply watch the parameters that have been laid out as they are fairly clear at the moment.  

SPX 15min
SPX 15min
SPX  60min
SPX 60min
Michael Golembesky is a senior analyst at ElliottWaveTrader covering US Indices, the US Dollar, and the VIX. He contributes frequently to Avi's Market Alerts service at EWT while also hosting his own VIX Trading service.