Tried But Failed – So Far

While the market held support and opened near the highs today, it still could not overcome that 2213SPX resistance region.  That level is actually the .618 extension of what represents the dark green wave 1 off the lows.  So, as presented here, that is either the 5th wave of the lighter green wave 1, or it is wave i of wave 3.  The issue from this point is a matter of support.

At any point in time from now, when the market breaks out over today’s high, that should finally confirm the heart of the 3rd wave.  While it has tried several times already, we have thus far failed.

Our supports reside at 2194/98, with 2175/82 below that.  We will need to break below 2175SPX (.618 of alt wave i) to give us a better confirmation that a bigger wave 2 in light green is playing out.

So, for now, as long as we remain below today’s high, a pullback can still be in order.  However, any explosive move over today’s high is a strong warning to anyone on the short side of the market, as the melt up will then begin in earnest.

Avi Gilburt is founder of