This Is It - Market Analysis for Sep 13th, 2022

I am putting out an update premarket due to the posture of the market at this time.

After all the patience and waiting, the market is now providing us with EXCELLENT parameters as to how we move forward. 

If you were following the action pre-market, the market was rallying through the night just to below the .618 retracement level.  And, after the announcement, the market spiked up to hit the .618 retracement to the PENNY to complete either the bigger a-wave in green, or the red b.  

Since that time, we have dropped quite strongly.  However, I cannot say with confidence that I can count a good 5-wave structure within that decline due to the spike, as it is hard to make out internal subwaves.  Yet, I am going to ASSUME we have an initial 5 waves down in either the (a) wave of b in green, or in wave i down of the red count. 

Before you think we are about to see a massive crash tomorrow, this wave i down is likely only the wave i within a larger wave 1 of the c-wave if that should occur.

Overall, the point of me sending out this update is because the market is giving us excellent parameters right now, with the pre-market high being the main and key point of reference.  As long as we remain below it, pressure remains down, and you should remain protective.

However, if the market is able to rally in impulsive action off this blue box of support in ES, and then we take out the pre-market high, it is STRONGLY indicative of the green c-wave which will likely exceed the 4325SPX region, and place a VERY bullish spin on the market going forward.  While I would still expect a bigger retracement as we head into the fall, I would be a lot more confident in a bullish outcome.

Yet, if all bounces are now corrective, and we break down below the box of support, it makes the red count much more likely, especially if we complete a fuller 5-waves down in a potential wave 1 of the c-wave in red.

So, parameters are now set.  Please trade and act accordingly.

Avi Gilburt is founder of