As the market has been squeezing higher and higher, I have been questioning if we were going to see (b) wave top to our wave (2), or if the market was going to give us a higher wave (1). And, as long as we do not break back below 2097SPX, I think we will likely head towards 2116-2128 for a larger degree wave (1), and move us into our prior alternative count.
As you can see on my attached chart, I have already moved into that perspective – and maybe even prematurely, as it is likely confirmed with a move through 2104SPX. But, once we do move through 2104SPX, this chart becomes my primary count.
Within this primary count in green – again, assuming we break out over 2104 before breaking back below 2097SPX – it means that wave (2) can take up a large part of the summer. In our prior count, all we needed was a (c) wave down in wave (2), which could have completed in June. Again, it is still possible if we do not get this break out through 2104. But, if we do, then our primary count needs another (a)(b)(c) structure to complete a larger degree wave (2).
Moreover, should the market continue higher now, please take note of the new alternative, which is a more bullish count. It suggests that the last low was a very shallow wave (2), and this rally is a wave i of (3). Again, this is not my primary expectation at this time, but due to the manner in which the IWM has been rallying, it is something I need to at least watch so we don’t get caught flat footed on an wave iii of (3) should it occur before my ideal expectation time frame.
While I wanted for this region to resolve itself this week to provide more clarity to these two potentials, the market is on the cusp of taking us into what was our alternative count until today. And, again, as long as we break out over 2104SPX without falling below 2097SPX first, then I will firmly move into the count presented on this chart.