The Unstoppable Train - Market Analysis for Nov 11th, 2025
By
Avi Gilburt
One way or another, the market seems to be signaling it wants to reach that 7000SPX milestone on this amazing rally off the April low. To see a rally like this is not terribly common (which is why I did not expect it), but this is what the market seems to be presenting us at this time.
With the rally off last week’s low already approaching the .764 retracement of the prior decline, and the fact that the rally looks like a 5-wave move off that low, it makes it much more likely that we are going to head to higher highs off the low struck last week.
While I am classifying the rally last week as an a-wave of a 5th wave, we normally seek a b-wave pullback pointing to the .382-.618 retracement of the a-wave. However, we have not even reached the .236 retracement of this rally. And, with the market trying to push higher towards that .764 retracement level as I write this update, I may even have to consider that the b-wave was the one hour pullback we saw last week.
Yes, I know this continues to remain an unusual rally, but I would assume the market is making itself viewed as exceptionally bullish as it is attempting to mark the completion of what will likely be an almost 100-year bull market.
For now, I would clearly prefer to see more of a b-wave pullback to the support box noted on the ES chart, which represents the .382-.618 retracement of the a-wave. However, if we begin to break out over the resistance box and the .764 retracement region in the 6883ES region, then I am going to have to move to the one hour pullback last week representing all of the b-wave we get.
So, I decided to send this update out a bit earlier than normal to alert you to this potential.
Alternatively, the market would need to break down below last week’s low for me to consider a top has potentially been struck.
