The Market Hasn’t Made a Decision Yet
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Today’s session was largely uneventful, with the market trading flat and showing little follow-through. As such, not much has changed from the prior analysis. From a structural standpoint, the pattern would look cleaner if we were to see another push to a higher high to further develop a potential Ending Diagonal off the 9/2 low. However, today’s lethargic action offered no clear signal that we’re ready to accelerate higher just yet.
At the same time, the case could be made that the pattern is already complete at current levels. With that in mind, I’ll be watching Friday’s low closely as an important downside pivot. A break below that level would be an early indication that at least a local top may already be in place. Conversely, if that low holds and price pushes higher, we could still have some unfinished business to the upside to complete the potential ED from the 9/2 low.
As shown on the ES chart, the 6451 level marks the first key downside pivot. A break there would have me watching the 6350 region as the next critical level of support. Should that level give way, larger support still resides down in the 6239–6161 zone, which, if broken, would offer stronger confirmation that a larger degree top may indeed be in place. Above these levels, however, further upside extensions cannot yet be ruled out.
Bigger picture, nothing has changed from the weekend update.
