The Easy Part Is Done

With the drop we had into today’s low, the market has now provided us with the minimum number of waves needed to consider the [c] wave down as completed.  Moreover, we even tested the 3200SPX support, as we came up only a few points short of that target.

Ideally, I wanted to see the market move below 3200SPX to bolster my expectations for the green count. Keep in mind that the .618 retracement for the yellow wave [2] was in the 3200SPX region, whereas the ideal target for the a-wave of green wave [ii] is the .382 retracement of the entire rally off the March low, which is in the 3050 region.

So, we have clearly bottomed at a point which is more in line with the yellow count, so we will have to keep an open mind as to the potential for that pattern.

But, as it stands as I am writing this update, the market has yet to prove that the [c] wave is in fact completed.  Since we are dealing with an ending diagonal for this [c], each of waves 1-5 are 3-wave structures.  Therefore, it is still a reasonable probability that the low struck today was the a-wave of wave 5, and the rally, which has thus far topped at the .618 retracement of the a-wave, is the b-wave of wave 5.  Therefore, if we see an impulsive move below 3214ES, it opens the door for the market to drop down to the 3145ES region to complete the wave 5 of the [c] wave. 

So, ultimately, this makes this region a very difficult region to navigate in the micro structure.  Should the market hold the micro support on my ES chart in the 3214-3225ES region, and then rally again up towards the 3300ES region, it would more likely suggest the [c] wave has completed, and that we are likely heading higher in the b-wave in green.

But, I want to warn you.  That b-wave in green will provide a whole lotta whipsaw, and when we are not being whipsawed, we will be grinding.  This is simply the nature of b-waves, so please prepare accordingly.

Lastly, I posted this update for those of you that are in the FOMO crowd and looking for the yellow count to take hold:

“Since I know it is coming, I am going to address it now . . . so please save this post and don't keep asking me!  :)

If the yellow count is going to have any chance at being a higher probability, then we will need to see a 5 wave rally back up towards the market highs.  You see, wave 1 of (3) should target the .618 extension of yellow waves (1) and (2) - assuming wave (2) completed today -  and then pullback correctively in wave 2 of (3). Thereafter, a break out over the market highs propels us to 4000-4250SPX.

Anything less is to be considered a green b-wave rally which will suggest further weakness in the fall to complete the c-wave of green wave (ii).

So, until we actually have a VERY clear 5 wave structure pointing us up back towards the prior highs, I am not going to put a lot of effort into this potential.”

In the meantime, I think our focus should be on whether the market can hold over the 3214-25ES support or not.  As long as we hold over that support, then I think we may be starting the green b-wave.  A break of that support would strongly argue for a deeper wave 5 towards the 3145ES region before this [c] wave completes.

5minES
5minES
60minSPX
60minSPX
Avi Gilburt is founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net.