Target Hit For iii of 3

Today, the market continued its path higher, and struck the 1.236 extension of waves 1 and 2.  But, it does leave us with a small question.  

Normally, when the market rallies in a wave iii of 3, it will target the 1.00-1.236 extensions of waves 1-2.  The high struck early in the day met that criteria. But, wave iv of 3 often pulls back to the .618-.764 extensions before it rallies higher.  And, the pullback off the morning high did not quite reach that support.  

At midday, we then rallied higher to strike the 1.236 extension on the nose, and have since pulled back.  

So, in the micro-structure, the question is if the pullback seen today completed wave iv, and the rally to the 1.236 extension is actually wave [i] of wave v, or did the extension to the 1.236 level complete wave iii, and we have since begun a bigger wave iv?  

Unfortunately, I really cannot answer that question with confidence at the time of my writing this update.  However, there are two reference points I can provide.  

First, as long as we remain over the pivot on the 5-minute SPX chart, then I have to assume we are heading higher in a more direct manner, as outlined yesterday.  Second, the next time we take out the high struck today at the 1.236 extension likely means we are in wave v of 3, which would seem to be next targeting the 1.618 extension in the 5512SPX region.

So, again, as long as we remain over the pivot support noted on the 5-minute SPX chart, I am looking higher to the 1.618 extension in the 5512SPX region.   Alternatively, a break-down below that support would suggest that we simply completed the [a] wave of this rally, assuming that such a break down will be corrective in nature.

Also, to serve as yet another reminder, please do not aggressively short this market until we have a solid 5-wave decline from a high from this point forth.