Support Still Holding - Market Analysis for Dec 26th, 2019

As I have been outlining the micro pivot over the last week, the market has been able to move through it, and has still maintained over it on several pullbacks.  Clearly, we will need to break down below that pivot to even begin to suggest a top has been struck, no matter how extended this move has become.

In the micro structure, we seem to be trying to now complete 5 waves up off the 3190 consolidation low in the ES/SPX charts.  Moreover, the IWM is still trying to stretch out towards the target box for its current rally.

As far as the IWM is concerned, we will need to break down below 165.30 to provide an initial indication of a top, and follow through below 161.50 to suggest the much larger pullback I am still expecting is under way. 

Overall, there is not much change to my overall expectations.  Yet, if the current strength continues into January of 2020, then I will have no choice but to adopt the yellow count even though I have highlighted the many issues I have with it.  But, the IWM is going to have to break out in a major way from here to convince me that is the case.  Yet, I really do not see the set up to take us there at this time.

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Avi Gilburt is founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net.