Support Holding - Market Analysis for Feb 24th, 2025

With the market dropping down today, the lower end of the support box I presented on the ES chart seems to have held for a potential wave 2 in the ending diagonal for the c-wave rally.

So, I am going to keep this rather simple.  As long as today’s low holds, then I am going to be seeking a rally back towards the recent highs, which would represent the a-wave of wave 3 in that ending diagonal.  For anyone that is looking for a bit higher probability trade to the upside, if you did not attempt a long at the bottom of the box today, your next opportunity would come on a corrective b-wave pullback after the a-wave rally completes.  But, a more confident long attempt would come after a 1-2 set up in the c-wave of wave 3, after the b-wave completes.

Just to remind you, within an ending diagonal, wave 3 often targets the 1.236 extension of waves 1-2, which in our case is the 6270ES region.  So, as long as we hold the support box, that is going to be my next upside target.

Alternatively, should the market break down below the support box on the ES chart, then it opens the door to the potential shown on the 60-minute SPX chart in a larger wave iv in yellow, and testing the bigger support box on the 60-minute SPX chart.  But, should we break the ES support, I also added an alternative wider b-wave around the 5923SPX region in blue.  Just keep in mind we are dealing with 3-wave structures, so they often present much more variable and unreliable patterns.