Summer Doldrums - Market Analysis for Jun 16th, 2026

Well, since not much has really happened there is really not much to add to the recent analysis.  So, I am simply going to add a couple of points from the daily SPX chart I am including in today’s update.

As you can see, price has come back to the uptrend line and we seem to be hitting our heads on it as we speak.  Moreover, the MACD has not crossed up yet to even begin a suggestion that this is a sustainable rally.  And, when it does, we usually like to see it having crossed over for 3 days to signal a new uptrend has potentially begun.  

Moreover, I would normally expect that the MACD would reset back into the target box below if we are indeed going to have an appropriate reset that can sustain a major rally from here. That would suggest that the MACD has lower to go, which likely means price has lower to go as well.

So, these daily signals seem to support the (b) wave rally wave count, with a reasonable expectation for a (c) wave decline to come, at least for now.  But, as I said in last night’s update, I am watching price very carefully.  And, if the market can sustain in the coming week up towards the 7700SPX region for the potential of yellow wave i, then we will have to change our perspective.  For now, I am still looking for this to resolve lower.

Yet, we still do not have a CLEAR 5-wave decline from a high to provide a strong indication that the (c) wave lower has begun.  Therefore, we simply have to wait a bit longer for the market to tip its hand.   Until then, I am still viewing the (b) wave topping as my primary count.