Stuck In The Middle

I wish I had some incredible insight to provide you this evening, but, alas, the market still has yet to make its decision.

Again, I have to side with the bulls, as this is a bull market.   Moreover, due to the height of this rally off the low, we have overlap with wave i down in yellow, which means the best the bears can do is provide us with a leading diagonal for wave 1 down.   And, for those that have followed by analysis for some time, you know I do not often rely upon leading diagonals as strong trading cues, so the market is going to have to prove the yellow count to me, as outlined in the weekend update.

But, I still have to highlight that we are within 40 points of the all-time high, and as long as we remain below the all-time high, the yellow count has to remain on my chart.  However, if the market can make a new all-time high, then I will primarily count that as completing wave v of 1, and then expect a re-test of the 3900-3950SPX region for wave 2, before we begin our run to 4300+.  Should we see a new all-time high, then my alternative will view this as wave i of 3, with the lows struck last week being wave 2.  But, remember, that is only going to be my alternative.

In the meantime, the market is still meandering below its all-time highs, and does not provide us strong guidance in the near term until we actually see a new all time high.  The yellow path for a larger wave [2] will continue to remain on my chart until such time, but I have to give the edge to the bulls at this time. 

5minSPX
5minSPX
60minSPX
60minSPX
Avi Gilburt is founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net.