Strong Extensions - Market Analysis for Apr 15th, 2021

I have been saying many times that if the market was going to head directly to the 4400SPX region, then we would begin to see strong extensions in this segment of the rally.  We may finally be seeing hints of that.

When I wrote yesterday’s update, the market was hitting its head on the 4150SPX minimum target I had for this segment of the rally.   Moreover, when we broke below 4135, I added another note that highlighted the 4110-20SPX support below.   I also noted that we would need to break that support to suggest that a test of 4070SPX was in progress, with the potential for the yellow count rising at that time.

However, with the market holding that support yesterday afternoon, we have now seen a strong extension, which I am assuming is a final 5th wave in wave [5] of iii in green.  With micro support moving up to 4150/53SPX, the market can still attempt a push to the 4200SPX region within wave [5] of iii.  Just remember that we are in a bull market, and within wave 3 of [3] of [iii] within that bull market, so extensions will be quite common.  

At this point in time, the .382 retracement of wave iii is in the 4084SPX region.  And, should we continue to push higher, it will clear rise along with price.  So, as long as the market remains over that support for a wave iv pullback, then I think we are setting up the next rally phase which points us to 4300+.  But, even so, please remember that there are still going to be up/down machinations in getting there, as we still need to complete wave iv of wave 3, followed by waves [1] and [2] within wave v of 3.  So, there is still potential for whipsaw in the coming week, which I have been outlining earlier this week. And, once this whipsaw completes, then I believe we will be on our way towards the 4400SPX region.

Alternatively, I really cannot take that yellow count seriously if we are able to exceed the 4175SPX region.  But, as long as we remain below it, my alternative count is that we are completing wave i of wave 3, which would point us down to the 3950/4000 region before we turn back up to target the 4600SPX region.  But, please recognize that I simply cannot consider this potential unless we see a break down below 4070SPX.

So, in summary, please continue to treat this as a bull market, and remember we have much higher targets in mind in the coming months.   But, as long as we remain over the 4070/84SPX support region, I think we can head to those targets in a more direct fashion.  

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Avi Gilburt is founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net.