Still Treacherous - Market Analysis for Nov 13th, 2025

I am sending out the update early, as the initial path I had outlined has basically been invalidated.  So, I wanted to outline what I am seeing right now.  

I want to start by noting that I am clearly not "bullish" in the bigger picture up here, nor am I buying every dip like there is no tomorrow.  However, I have to note that the market has neither broken any major support levels, nor has it given us a strong indication that an ending diagonal has completed.  Therefore, it forces me to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt at each potential opportunity.

Based upon the next bullish potential I have to entertain, the high we recently struck in this rally off last week's low can be viewed as an a-wave of a final rally to higher highs.  That would then make this a b-wave pullback, for which I have outlined a support box on the 5-minute SPX chart.

But, I also have to note that the purple c-wave decline is still very much in the running as well.  This count would suggest this is wave 1 of the c-wave down. 

Therefore, if the next bounce is clearly impulsive, then it signals that the c-wave higher has likely begun.  But, if the bounce is corrective, then we have to assume we will see a test of the 6550-6580SPX region.

If there is anything further I will need to update before the end of the day, I will post it in this thread.