Still Thinking Higher - Market Analysis for Feb 16th, 2022

While I still think the market can push higher in the coming days, that does not mean that the whipsaw is over.

If you look at the 5-minute ES chart, you will see the two paths I am tracking right now, which are both pointing higher in the near term.  So, I am going to post the parameters I just posted as an alert in the main room:

“We have a pivot above between 4500-4519ES.  That is our watermark that we MUST exceed to set our plan into motion.  Until that happens, this b-wave within a (b) wave can still take another loop lower before completing.

But, should we directly exceed our pivot, then our target is the 4530-4549ES region.  If we meet that target and hold above the pivot, the market opens the door to the yellow count overhead.  But, if we then break back below the pivot in impulsive fashion, it tells us that the (c) wave to lower lows is likely taking hold.

But, remember, until we get through the pivot, we can still swing down one more time [for a deeper b-wave].  The key will then be holding the 4365ES support.

Ultimately, I really have no good confluence for the yellow count, so I remain in green.”

To put this as simply as I can, as long as we hold today’s low, then immediate pressure remains up to the 4530-4549ES region to test our [b] wave resistance.  However, if we break below today’s low, then the b-wave within the [b] wave is taking another loop lower . . and as long as it holds the 4365ES region, I am still expecting one more rally towards the 4500-4530ES region before the [b] wave resistance gets tested.

This leaves a lot of room for continued whipsaw, but with a near term upside bias in the coming days.

While the yellow count is still very much alive and on the chart, I have to again note that there really is no confluence within the structure which strongly suggests this will play out.  That does not mean it won’t play out.  It just means there is no clear evidence that it will, which leaves me strongly in the green count still, until proven otherwise.

5minES
5minES
60minSPX
60minSPX
Avi Gilburt is founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net.