Still Not Complete - Market Analysis for Oct 5th, 2026

With the market pushing higher today, it has to force us to view another shallow wave 2 as having completed. If you look at the 5-minute SPX chart, you will see that I am now viewing us as being in wave 3 of the ending diagonal taking shape for the c-wave of wave (v).

But, due to how shallow the potential wave 2 was, if forces me to extend our target for wave (v) just a bit higher. This makes the ideal target for this c-wave of wave (v) the 7920-7975SPX region.

Also, I am leaving the alternative count as presented before – the potential bigger b-wave. But, the more this rallies, the less the probability of that potential. Yet, if we see a 5-wave decline begin at any point now, that could alert us to the potential for this pattern to play out in the coming days.  And, please note that there is still some support for this potential with the 60-minute MACD rallying back to the resistance zone.  And, yes, this is part of the problem of trusting 3-wave moves.

Overall, I am still expecting that we can achieve higher highs, followed by a reversal. And, the nature of that reversal can tell us a lot about how to view the market into the end of the year as well as into 2027.