Still Meandering - Market Analysis for Aug 24th, 2022

With the market unable to put an end to this c-wave, we still seem to be stuck in this overlapping action down here.  So, nothing has really changed from yesterday.  

Our ideal target box starts around the 4095SPX region, which represents the .382 retracement of wave iii in green.  So, for now, I still think  the market is attempting to make its way down to that target.  And, while the MACD on the 60-minute chart as now turned up, I think that any further drop may finally complete this c-wave of wave iv.  

But, remember, since the rally after wave iv completes is going to be an a-b-c structure, it likely means that the a-wave will also take shape as a 3-wave structure.  In other words, any rally will “look” corrective in nature.  That is why it is imperative to break out through the resistance zone to strongly suggest that the a-wave for wave v is in progress.

In the meantime, we may have a micro [i][ii] structure developing as I write this update.  This would provide us with the decline in wave 5 of the c-wave.  So, as long as today’s high holds in place, and we get an immediate corrective wave [ii] bounce, then we have a set up to test our support below.

For now, I am still looking lower until we can complete this c-wave, or the market tells us otherwise by breaking out over resistance.  And, clearly, it has pushed my expectations for the resumption of the rally until the end of the week, or maybe even until early next.

Avi Gilburt is founder of