Still Hovering Over Support

There really is not a lot I have to adjust from the analysis yesterday afternoon, since we have not really moved much in the bigger picture.  But, I am going to add a few more points.

First, I want to again reiterate the risk/reward potential we have before us for as long as we hold the 4400SPX region. In fact, today’s action has even provided a small amount of positive divergence on the 60-minute MACD.  So, I think it is reasonable to expect a rally from this support.

Second, I have changed the alternatives just a bit.  The lower probability alternative pointing to 4900SPX is now being presented in blue, and is designated with an “alt” for the benefit of our members who are color challenged.

Third, I have also added an alternative for wave 3 having topped already, which is now being presented in yellow.  While I also view this as a lower probability at this point in time, I must at least recognize the potential.  But, there are only two things that will make this a higher probability:  1- If the market breaks down below 4400SPX; 2 – if the next rally is a corrective structure, as presented in yellow, and then we break back below the low we create down here.  

The other point I want to add about the current downside structure is that today’s drop made it a bit more complex.  So, again, I still need a strong reversal through today’s high to take shape to convince me that the ending diagonal [c] wave has indeed completed.  Moreover, that reversal must be a 5-wave structure to complete wave [1] in green, as presented on the 5-minute SPX chart.  That is what we will need to see to signal we are on our way up to our next resistance in the 4600-4630SPx region.

For now, I am still giving the bulls the benefit of the doubt since it seems like we are still trying to complete a [c] wave pullback, and the MACD on the 60-minute chart has now come back down to the top of the support region from which many prior rallies have begun.  And, until the bulls prove otherwise, as outlined above, I am looking up to the 4600-30SPX next resistance region from this current support region.

Avi Gilburt is founder of