Still Does Not Seem Done

Not much has changed in the wave count from yesterday.  The rally into yesterday’s high seems to have been the (a) wave of the b-wave in the 5^th wave of this ending diagonal, with the overnight action providing us a (b) wave pullback, and today’s rally being the (c) wave of the b-wave.

Thus far we have come up to the .618 retrace of the a-wave decline, as you can see from the attached 15-minute ES chart.  While this may be all we see, the (c) wave rally really looks incomplete, and can certainly make one more rally attempt towards the .763 retracement region.  In fact, that .764 retracement region has confluence with an (a)=(c) ratio within this b-wave rally.  

Moreover, since I cannot count a clear 5-wave decline yet (as the c-wave down should be a standard 5-wave structure), it adds to the probability that the market may make another attempt to push towards that .764 retracement region before beginning the c-wave decline.

So, overall, pressure will remain to the downside as long as we remain below that .764 retracement level and the top of the resistance box on the 15-minute ES chart.  And, clearly, should the market be able to strongly exceed that resistance, then I am going to have to assume something else is in play, such as the larger (b) wave retracement.  For now, that is only an alternative.