The title to this update is in reference to the yellow count we have been tracking. While it is clearly not my favored, it is still in the running – at least for now.
You see, the market dropped right down to the .618 retracement level of the alternative wave  of [iii] in yellow, and has rallied off that support. The question now is if the market can complete a 5-wave structure off that support or not.
At this point in time, a 5-wave structure would consider today’s pullback a wave [iv] off last weeks low. And, if the market can set up to make a higher high over the 3364ES region, then we can count 5-waves off the low struck last week. You can see this potential in yellow on the 5-minute ES chart.
However, if the market should break down below the 3300ES region before it is able to complete this 5-wave structure, it stabs a dagger into the heart of the yellow count. The 3300ES region is what would be considered the .382 retracement of yellow wave [iii], and a break of that level makes it much less likely we are dealing with a 4th wave pullback.
Now, even if we do see a 5-wave structure develop over the coming days, that does not mean the green count is out of the picture. You see, the [a] wave can also be a 5-wave structure, although they are most commonly 3-wave structures. In fact, even in the yellow count, I do not think this 5-wave structure – if completed, will be large enough to be considered wave 1 of wave  of [iii], as shown on the 60-minute chart. Rather, it may only be wave i of 1.
Ultimately, I think the market will be taking us higher in the coming weeks, even if we are stuck within the larger b-wave in green. But, the micro path is still in question. I think the next week to two weeks will likely provide us with a much stronger expectation between the yellow and green paths. For now, I still view the green path as the primary count.