Special Update - Market Analysis for Mar 12th, 2019
By
Avi Gilburt
Nothing has really changed in my perspective of the SPX. My “preference” remains to extend to 2875SPX, and it would be within an a-b-c structure, as presented on the 5-minute chart. That means I would want to see a b-wave pullback into later this week to set up the rally to 2875SPX.
With so many of you asking my perspective on the TLT, I thought I would include it in this evening’s update, since there is not much more I am able to add about the SPX.
So, moving onto the TLT chart, I want to explain what I am waiting on my last tranche for the TLT. For those that were not following me on this trade, I bought TLT at 113, and sold 2/3 of my position at 124. I then bought 1/3 back at when we broke 119, and have another 1/3 to put back in for my final tranche. However, I was looking for a bit lower before I do so.
Before I explain how we can get lower, let me outline the current break out scenario that would force me to add on the break out. If the [a][b][c] structure for the b-wave has completed, then this rally is a wave 1 of the c-wave. That means we should see a wave 2 pullback, and then trigger the 3rd wave of the c-wave when we break out over the top of the wave 1. That is the break out I am waiting for in order to add back the other 1/3.
The reason I am still holding the other 1/3 is for the potential to buy back at 116.50. The yellow alt [b] represents a more protracted [b] wave within the [b] wave, with this rally being the c-wave within that [b]. So, if the market begins to drop in impulsive fashion, then I am going to be looking for a drop below 118 or lower before I use that final 1/3.
Under all circumstances, that final 1/3 will be deployed before we break back over 124, which means I was still able to get some price improvement before we rally for the c-wave. But, I am still giving the market the opportunity to give me an even better price.
Have a good evening all.
