Slowly Leaking Lower - Market Analysis for Aug 6th, 2026

With the market seemingly topping in wave iii of (iii) of wave i in the yellow count, we have spent yesterday and today slowly leaking lower to the support box below. I want to note now that we do not have to actually strike the support box before wave iv is complete. The main point is that as long as we pullback correctively and hold over that support box, then the next expectation is for a wave v of (iii) rally once this completes.

I want to also note that if the market should choose the more bearish path, then we would see a 5-wave decline which would project to at least the bottom of the ES support box. But, for now, I am not seeing evidence of that potential taking hold.

As far as the (b) wave potential, it stays on the chart even after another rally. You see, (b) waves are 3-wave structures, and until we actually complete 5-waves up or at least complete 3 waves up followed by a clear corrective pullback thereafter, I am unable to take this alternative off the chart. So, that is why you still see it on the chart, and will likely still see it even after another rally.

So, in summary, we remain over the main support boxes outlined on the 5-minute SPX and 15-minute ES charts. And, as long as those supports hold, I am keeping the yellow count as our primary for now. But, as I have said before, I am still very cautious due to all the issues I still have with the yellow count. Yet, for now, the bulls remain in charge and in control.