Sloppy Action But Market Still Holding Over Support

Today the market opened higher but retraced lower shortly after the open. We have since recovered some of that drop but are still holding over yesterday's low and, more importantly, over the larger-degree support zone, keeping the impulsive move up off of the July lows very much intact. This slow and sloppy action is starting to look like we may be forming an Ending Diagonal up off of the 8/6 low, but we still need to break out over the 8/10 high to further confirm that this is indeed the case. Until that occurs, I still can't fully rule out seeing another push lower, but as of right now, and as long as we continue to hold support, the near-term pressure does remain up.

As I am showing on the ES chart, I am still counting the move off of the 8/6 low as being the start of the wave v up, as shown in yellow. With that said, because we do not have clear impulsive wave action off of any of the recent lows, I am leaning toward the move up taking the form of an Ending Diagonal to finish off this wave v. I will want to see a break back over the 7793 level, followed by a break over the 7818 level, to further confirm this is indeed the case. Until that occurs, I still cannot fully rule out that we are topping in the blue wave (b), still needing a larger wave (c) of iv down before breaking higher. With that said, I do not have a clean and completed pattern for this blue count at the moment, so I will continue to look higher as long as we can continue to hold over the 7735 low.

So, as I noted above, while the action remains sloppy, as long as we continue to hold support, the pressure does still remain up. However, that move higher may come in a slower and sloppier manner than what we had seen in the move that began on 7/29 and ended on 8/5.