Simply Amazing - Market Analysis for Oct 28th, 2025
By
Avi Gilburt
As I wrote earlier today:
“I am truly astounded that we have been able to approach the 7000 region without more than a .236 retracement. It is truly amazing. But, it has done its job . . it has made people absolutely believe in the invincibility of the US equity market.”
In fact, if you are given this larger degree structure without more than a .236 retracement the entire way up, 8 or 9 out of 10 times this would not likely be the result, in my humble opinion. That is why I view this as such an anomaly, as it is so rare to see this type of move. But, as I mentioned above, it is likely doing its job in convincing the masses that the equity market is invincible. And, this is why I think that once this completes, the potential for the alternative blue count on the 60-minute chart will likely be rather low.
What is also interesting is that the market is now sitting just below three main trend channels I have been tracking. So, needless to say, it is hard to see a strong argument for trading the upside with anything more than day-trades.
So, my apologies, but I simply cannot, with a good conscience, offer counts that are pointing much higher. Rather, I am posting support which you can use as you see fit. I have added an initial support box on the 15-minute ES chart, and a break down below that with follow through below the wave (4) low would be an initial signal to me of a top in place.
But, I am again going to warn you. Shorts have likely been taken out of this market in a big way, which leaves a vacuum of liquidity below us. And, the fact that we are likely concluding a large diagonal points to the potential for a VERY strong reversal once we begin to really break supports. So, PLEASE make sure you have a risk management plan in place so that you are not being caught like a deer in the headlights once this does turn. In fact, I may begin to issue warning as I did when gold was entering its blow off top. You have to ask yourself how much risk you want to take.
