Today the SPX continued to push higher breaking the previous high struck on November 14th thus making it less probable that this move up is still part of a wave b ready to turn down imminently in a wave c. Now I will note that while the SPX has broken this high the ES has yet to break that high so I am still going to allow for this move to be the wave b which I am now showing in red on the SPX 5 min chart. I do however think that it is less likely that we are topping in that wave b thus making it more probable that we are going to push a bit higher to finish off this pattern.
Even with a push to new highs, it does not change the larger degree count as I am simply counting this push to new highs as an extension of the green wave (a) or yellow wave (1) as shown on the 60min chart. In fact, I think that this push to new highs fills out a better five wave move up off of the 11/3 low for the wave c of either that wave (a) or the (1) of the yellow count. So with that being the case, I do think we ideally should push a bit higher to finish off the micro pattern as I have laid out on the SPX 5min chart. I have good fib confluence in the 4042-4050 region on the SPX which also should get the ES to a point in which it pushes over that high stuck on November 14th thus giving us a pattern that is not truncated.
The initial signal that a top is in place will come with a break back under today's low of the day at the 3998 level followed by a break under the 3988 level. From there I would then want to see a move into at least the 3800 level which is near the upper end of support for the wave (2)/(b) as shown on the 60min chart which comes in at the 3821-3612 zone below. As long as that zone holds on the next larger pullback then we should see a larger degree push higher in the later part of 2022 and into the new year.
So again and as noted above, I am not viewing this push to new highs as changing the overall and larger degree count all that much at this point in time and in fact I think it cleans things up quite a bit. I still am looking for a pullback over the next several weeks before seeing a strong and sustainer break higher. That said and until we see a break of the support levels noted above I do think this may have a bit of unfinished business to the upside before that top is seen.