SPX Meandered Today Below Resistance

There is nothing bearish yet being seen in the SPX.  We have simply spent the day meandering below our next resistance in a corrective fashion.  So, the only question I have is if the market is going to try to make one more stab at the resistance region before giving us more of a pullback.  Support for that potential is in the 5110SPX region.  Below that, and I have to assume we are in wave [ii] in yellow.

But, the parameters on the larger degree remain the same.  As long as we are over 5048SPX, I am looking to challenge the next resistance overhead in the 5150-80SPX region.   Should we move through that region, then it becomes support on our way to 5350-90SPX, and the upper right hand corner box for wave 5.

Alternatively, a break-down below 5048SPX is an initial sign that wave 5 has potentially topped.

However, the IWM is still suggesting we can push higher before this wave structure is done.  Yet, the closer we get to 209+, the more nervous and cautious I get.

Today’s push higher has placed the micro structure in question.  It is possible that we have already begun the c-wave, and today’s action completed wave 1 of that c-wave.  But, the prior decline just seems too small to be all of the b-wave.  So, at least for now, I am going to still maintain my primary count as is.  Yet, I must start to see a pullback in the IWM begin rather imminently to maintain that perspective.

For now, I still see potential for the market to push higher before this rally off the October 2023 low completes.  But, I am again going to urge you to maintain a risk management plan in hand should we break a support earlier than I currently expect.

***** I will also be doing a metals update a bit later due to today’s action.